Saturday, September 15, 2018

Frequency of Hurricanes Hitting the United States is Not Increasing

If you listen to the media hype these days you would believe the frequency of hurricanes hitting the United States has been dramatically increasing due to climate change. However, if you look at the facts the number of hurricanes hitting the United States has not been increasing at all.


In fact, as the data below shows, the frequency of hurricanes hitting the United States has actually decreased by a very significant amount over the last 75 years. And as the National Weather Service notes the frequency of hurricanes from 1850 to 1900 were almost certainly underestimated as many areas where hurricanes hit at that time were not heavily populated.

Here is a list of the number of hurricanes to make landfall in the United States by decade. The list goes from the decade with the most hurricanes at the top to the decade with the least hurricanes at the bottom. 

As you can see, the 2010s have seen the fewest hurricanes that have made landfall in the United States since records have been kept with only one year remaining in the decade. (Hurricane Florence is included)


Frequency of Hurricanes Hitting the United States is Not Increasing (Number of hurricane landfalls by decade since 1850)


1. 1880s - 25


2. 1940s - 23


3. 1910s - 21


4. 1890s - 20


5. 1870s - 19


6. 2000s - 19


7. 1950s - 18


8. 1930s - 18


9. 1900s - 17


10. 1850s - 16


11. 1980s - 16


12. 1860s - 15


13. 1920s - 15


14. 1960s - 15


15. 1990s - 14


16. 1970s - 12


17. 2010s - 10 


Average Per Year Frequency 


1. 1850 -1899 - 1.9 per year


2. 1900-1949 - 1.88 per year


3. 1950- 1999 - 1.5 per year


4. 2000 to 2018 - 1.5 per year


As you can see from the above numbers, the frequency of hurricanes making landfall in the United States has declined from almost two per year for 100 years (1850 to 1949) to just 1.5 per year average over the last 79 years. 

The idea that climate change is causing a greater number of hurricanes to make landfall in the United States is just not true.

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